Hard to say, but he is already on his way there.
Luka Doncic is one of the most transcendent all around talents I’ve seen since Lebron for sure.
Let’s go year by year comparison..
Luka’s rookie season – averages 21/8/6/ and wins ROTY. Misses the playoffs.
Lebron’s rookie season – averages 21/6/6/ and wins ROTY. Misses the playoffs.
Luka’s 2nd year – averages 29/9/9, all-star, first team All-NBA, loses in the first round to the Kawhi/PG Clippers.
Lebron’s 2nd year – averages 27/7/7, all-star, second team All-NBA, misses the playoffs.
Luka’s 3rd year – averages 28/8/9, all-star, first team All-NBA, loses in the first round again, in 7 games, again to the Kawhi/PG Clippers.
Lebron’s 3rd year – averages 31/7/7, all-star, first team All-NBA, loses in the second round in 7 games to the 64 win Pistons.
Luka’s 4th year – averages 28/9/9, all-star, first team All-NBA, upsets the 64 win Suns and loses in the WCF to Curry’s Warriors.
Lebron’s 4th year – averages 27/7/6, all-star, second team All-NBA, takes the Cavs to the Finals and gets swept by Duncan’s Spurs.
So, as you can see.. Luka’s trajectory is actually very similar to Lebron’s. Both of them break out in their second season and start averaging ridiculous numbers. Both of them have had to carry their teams on their backs at this point in their careers. Both Luka’s 4th year where he upset the 64 win Suns and Lebron’s 4th year where he went to the Finals are remarkable all time performances. Luka currently averages 32.5/9.3/7.9 in the playoffs. Just by playoffs PPG alone – Luka has the second highest playoffs PPG all time after Michael Jordan. Lebron averages 30.1/9.1/7.8 in the playoffs for the Cavs. As you can see.. remarkably similar numbers.
Skillset wise, Luka has a better jumper than Lebron did at this stage in his career, he’s already a much better ball handler than Lebron ever was, and he has the same rebounding, basketball IQ, leadership and court vision as Lebron. He’s not as athletic as Lebron is, and he’s not as good defensively.
Career wise.. it depends what the Mavs give Luka. Luka seriously needs some help, just like Lebron needed help in his early Cavs career. If he gets just one more all-star caliber player around him, he could be making a Finals run. Barring injuries I don’t see why Luka can’t end his career at least in the top 12 all time but could end up even higher. Now to beat Lebron on the all time list, he at least has to have 4 MVPs, 4 FMVPs, and all time leading scorer so… that might be a bit difficult to do.