For the entire past week I’ve been warning Quorans that Trump had a very good chance of winning and nobody believed me. Everyone dismissed the polls I brought up, the fact that betting markets favored Trump etc I even had a few people block me because they didn’t want to believe the numbers I was giving them. I noticed that all the answers that gave reasons for Harris winning were heavily upvoted while the answers I gave and some others about Trump having a chance were all ignored. Quorans were in denial about Trump that’s for sure. Probably because Quora is left leaning.
Here are some of the narratives Harris supporters believed on here that I will counter why it was false confidence.
“Americans couldnt possibly elect Trump again that guy is a racist/liar/bigot/felon/etc”
Yes they could. You underestimate how stupid and ignorant Americans are. Take it from me, I love basketball and I have to deal with dumbass LeBron James haters everyday who constantly spread childish memes and misinformation about him and seeing the amount of people who believe those lies and BS online, I know that there is a substantial portion of people in the US who are not very educated and stubborn in their beliefs furthermore refuse to be convinced no matter how much evidence and how many facts you show them. Do not underestimate how many ignorant Americans there are.
“Polls are inaccurate and they are overestimating Trump because they adjust for him over performing in 2016 and 2020”
I heard some answers say this and I don’t think the polls adjusted for anything.
“Polls are not correctly forecasting Harris huge margin amongst young women voters”
The data from NBC, WSJ and many other media outlets accurately predicted that yes while young women voted disproportionately for Harris, it’s been countered by an even bigger margin for young male voters breaking for Trump. Furthermore there was lots of data showing that Harris was losing support amongst black men and Latinos. This is a classic example of confirmation bias. Harris supporters on Quora only wanted to believe the data that was favorable to them disregarding the data that was unfavorable.
“Betting markets are pro Trump and they don’t have to be citizens so they are not accurate”
Ok but why would people want to lose money if they thought Harris had the better chance to win? Even if there are some pro Trump bettor whales out there why would they risk losing large amounts of money unless they had a good idea Trump was going to win?
“Maybe there is silent Harris voters like the silent Trump voter effect that the polls arent showing”
No. There is no reason for there to be any silent Harris voters. All the social media comments I’ve seen people are proud to be Harris voters and love to show it. There’s no reason to be silent because Harris is an upstanding individual. Trump is not and thus there’s reason to be silent about voting for him.
“But everyone I know around me even Republicans are voting for Harris!!”
Selection bias. You surrounded yourself with people who are likely to agree with yourself. If you are a Harris voter it’s unlikely your friends would be Trump voters and vice versa. Friendships have been lost over political differences before.
“BUT WHY WOULD AMERICANS VOTE FOR TRUMP AGAIN??”
It’s the economy, stupid. Inflation hit everyone hard and even though the president doesn’t control inflation, the majority of Americans blame the President for it) and 70% of Americans said the country was on the wrong track. This was pretty telling already. Also, for the first time in 3 decades we now have more registered Republicans than Democrats. That’s also very telling.
Quorans were in denial about Trump winning. Now this is something I wanted to be wrong about since I know Harris is better for America – but in this case I was right. People wanted Harris to win so badly they purposely tuned out and dismissed all the data on RCP and other polling sites pointing to a Trump win. Trump ALWAYS outperforms his polls. That’s what I was saying and that still remains true. The fact that she was behind Clinton and Biden in these polls was already a bad sign and I knew that Trump had a good chance to win decisively.
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