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Trump wins the election! against all odds…

I’m still reeling from shock of Trump winning the election. Up until Election night, I was 99% sure Hillary would win, because I believed all the polls, all the forecasts, all the betting websites and prediction websites, and boy were they all wrong.

Let me assure you that 2016 is the year that taught me that underdogs always have a chance. First with Cleveland Cavaliers beating the Golden State Warriors (a 73 win team, the most in NBA history), and losing $2500 on the bet there. Then with Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton (with all the backing of the mainstream media), and losing $5500 on the bet there. In total, I lost $8k this year from betting on the favorites. Had I bet on the underdog, well I would have been a lot richer now. Instead I’m quite poorer than before… but I learned my lesson this year.

Its kind of a lesson we all should learn, really. When someone becomes too arrogant, and predicts an early victory, there’s always a chance they will be humbled. Certainly an $8000 dent in my wallet has been humbling to me. In the future, I will be more cautious of picking the favorite, because you never know anymore. In retrospect though, it makes sense.

Lebron James is a transcendent player, and Golden State relied too much on 3 pointers. Live by the 3, die by the 3 is a common saying. In the playoffs, anything can happen, and it came down to literally the last 2 minutes of the series, when Kyrie Irving hit a clutch 3 and sealed away Golden State’s chances. It was really a 50/50 kind of outcome. Golden State should not have been favored. Just because they won 73 games in the regular season doesn’t predict how they will play in the playoffs. Past results don’t indicate future performance

Similarly, in retrospect, it was easy to see why Trump won (even though Hillary won the popular vote). The polls only polled likely voters, and missed a lot voters who chose not to answer. This so called silent majority went and prevailed for Trump. Hillary was more hated than people thought. And they underestimated just how much people wanted change in America, myself included. People were so anti-establishment this year, especially in the Midwest where many people disliked Hillary ALOT. Pollsters falsely assumed that the same demographics that came out for Obama in 2012 would come out for Hillary but thats just not the case. Hillary doesn’t have the same charisma, and she has too much baggage/scandals/controversy to be the same as Obama. And Republicans have historically had more enthusiasm to vote than Democrats have. Obama was an exceptional candidate who mobilized people to vote, and Hillary just isn’t the same.

So, it was deeply humbling for me to lose both these bets and be down $8000 in the hole (exactly the same amount I won betting on Obama in 2012, what goes around comes around I guess). As for the new President Trump, I do have a few worries about his inclination to repeal or replace NAFTA (thats the agreement that gives Canadians like me a special visa to work in the USA). Because of his anti-immigrant stance, and I am a US immigrant on a US work visa, it does affect me. I hope nothing too drastic will happen, but who knows? Trump is so far the only US president without any prior political or military experience, so no one really knows what will happen. I really do hope that he becomes a great president. I really don’t believe that he wants to start wars or be a dictator like people think. But at the end of the day, life will go on, and the sun will come up again, so we will see. Hey, At least weed in California is legal now!

Edit: I just want to make clear that politically, I am neither a Democrat nor a Republican. Since 2009, I have been a registered Canadian Conservative voter, but in the US, Republicans are sometimes too crazy for me, though I believe in conservative policies. I have always believed in fiscal conservatism and reduced spending, with more individual liberties. Since I have lived in South Korea (a very conservative Asian country) for the past 2 years, I have become more socially conservative as well. I don’t specifically oppose gay marriage or abortion or illegal immigration, but I’m not in favor of those things either. In truth, I don’t really care about any of those things since it doesn’t really affect me. Korea has definitely made me believe in traditional gender roles a lot more than before though, and that has really caused to me oppose feminism these past 2 years. In that sense – Trump winning the election doesn’t really affect me that much – and I don’t really oppose any of his policies, which is why you won’t see me rioting in the streets like some other Californians.

I made a video ranking US presidents out of sheer boredom..